Final Workshop

“Scientific Models and Scientific Inference”, 7-11 July 2021

The final workshop of the ERC project “Making Scientific Inferences More Objective” brings together the researchers who have worked on the project over the past five years, and joins forces with the PRIN project “From Models to Decisions”.

Location: Casa della Gioia, Via Zampori, 23, 21010 Castelveccana (VA)

Wednesday, 7 July 2021

13:30 – 15:00Lunch and Welcome
15:00 – 16:15Keynote I: Gustavo Cevolani (IMT Lucca)
Confirmation and Truthlikeness
16:15 – 16:30Coffee Break
16:30 – 18:00Session 1: Medicine
Federico Boem, Pandemic: Proximate and Ultimate Causes
Saul Perez Gonzalez, From Population to Individual: evidence of mechanisms and decision-making in the clinical setting
18:00 —Aperitivi and Dinner

Thursday, 8 July 2021

09:15 – 10:45Session 2: Reverse Inference in Neuroscience
Fabrizio Calzavarini, Abductive Reasoning in Cognitive Science: weak and strong reverse inference
Davide Coraci, Reverse Inference, Bayesian Confirmation and Prediction in Cognitive Neuroscience
10:45 — 11:15Coffee Break
11:15 – 12:45Discussion Panel (Bayesian Brain): Stephan Hartmann, Vincenzo Crupi, Gustavo Cevolani, Fabrizio Calzavarini
12:15 – 14:30Lunch Break
AfternoonExcursion (Lake)

Friday, 9 July 2020

09:15 – 10:45Keynote II: Stephan Hartmann
Measuring Coherence
10:45 – 11:15Coffee Break
11:15 – 12:45Session 3: Logic and Mathematics
Caterina Sisti, Ramsey’s Test: a unified account of conditionals
Michele Lubrano, Mathematical Proofs: two kinds of unification
12:45 – 14:30Lunch Break
14:30 — 16:00Session 4: Probabilistic Inference
Vincenzo Crupi, TBA
Jan Sprenger, Severity in Bayesian Hypothesis Testing
16:00 – 16:30Coffee Break
16:30 – 17:30Session 5: Social Science
Noah Van Dongen, A Perspective on Explanation Construction in the Social Sciences
Folco Panizza, How Conformity can Lead to Polarised Social Behaviour
18:00 —Aperitivi and Dinner

Saturday, 10 July 2021

09:15 – 10:45Session 6: Scientific Crisis:
Mattia Andreoletti, Genuine vs Bogus Scientific Controversies
Michal Sikorski, Is Forensic Science in Crisis?
10:45 — 11:15Coffee Break
11:15 – 12:45Special Session on Statistical Inference in Psychology and Neuroscience: Jan Sprenger, Noah Van Dongen
12:15 – 14:30Lunch Break
AfternoonExcursion (Mountains)

Sunday, 11 July 2021

09:30 — 10:45Session 7: Miscellaneous:
Samuele Iaquinto, Credible Futures
Francesco Nappo, Materialism about Analogue Simulations
10:45 — 11:15Coffee Break
11:15 — 12:45Closing Discussion
12:45Lunch and Farewell


The workshop will take place in the following venue overlooking Lago Maggiore:

Casa della Gioia
Via Zampori Fratelli, 23
21010 Castelveccana (VA)

There is very limited space for staying in the villa itself, but there are several places in the vicinity where participants can stay.

The venue is close to the local train station of Caldè (15′ walk) and easily reachable even if accommodation is booked elsewhere.

Travel time by train from Milano (Porta Garibaldi) to Caldè is about 1:30 hours and from the Malpensa airport ca. 1:30-2 hours. Coming from Turin it is necessary to change in Rho Fiera or Milan. Dependent on your travel schedule it can also be convienent to take a local bus for the last kilometers. Check or your preferred integrated train/bus travel planner.


For further inquiries, please contact:

Jan Sprenger (

Michele Lubrano (


The workshop is organized by the Center for Logic, Language and Cognition (LLC) and the Department of Philosophy and Educational Sciences at the University of Turin. It is funded by ERC Starting Investigator Grant No. 640638, “Making Scientific Inferences More Objective”, directed by Jan Sprenger (Turin), and it’s the final scientific event of that research project.

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